tetlock-style-economists

1. Clarify the event The event is: France wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup — that is, they finish as champions by winning the final match — by the Resolution Date of July 20, 2026.

2. Estimate the historical base rate Historically, France has won 2 of 22 completed World Cups (1998 and 2018), a ~9% base rate. However, modern tournaments differ significantly in team strength and structure.

3. Break the problem into independent factors We consider:

• Pre‑tournament betting and prediction markets
• Latest in‑tournament simulation models and performance
• Squad quality and momentum

4. Estimate each factor separately

A. Betting and prediction markets – Sportsbook implied probabilities for France generally fall between ~11% and ~18%. For instance, BetMGM lists odds of +350 (~22%)? Actually +350 implies ~22%, but other sportsbooks show +350 for France positive. Let’s cite directly: • Kalshi prediction markets show France at ~19.1% implied chance to win (squawka.com). • FanDuel quotes France at +350, i.e. roughly 22% implied probability (foxsports.com)— but other sportsbooks show +800 (~11–12%) (squawka.com). – Consensus across platforms tends toward 15–18% pre‑tournament.

B. Simulation models and live updates – CupChances simulates millions of tournament outcomes and currently gives France a 14% probability of winning (cupchances.com). – An economic/tournament model (Poder360) gives France an 18.9% chance as of late May 2026 (static.poder360.com.br).

C. Squad quality and in‑tournament momentum – France started strong: 3‑1 win over Senegal (June 16) and 3‑0 win over Iraq to guarantee knockout qualification (lemonde.fr). – Mbappé continues to deliver, breaking records and maintaining elite form (lemonde.fr). – However, concerns remain: Dembélé has under‑performed for the national team despite club success (lemonde.fr). – Overall, their depth, experience (Deschamps’ farewell tournament), and momentum are positive but not dominant.

5. Recombine into an overall probability Weighing the data: – Betting markets: ~15–18% – Simulation models: ~14–19% – On‑field performance: modest boost, maybe +1–2 pts. Combining conservatively, a reasonable forecast is ~15%.

6. Check for overconfidence There remains considerable uncertainty: tournament outcomes are highly variable. Betting models average markets but can shift dramatically due to draws, injuries, or form. Our estimate has a wide confidence range (e.g., ±5%).

7. Imagine why we could be wrong – France could be eliminated unexpectedly by a strong opponent (e.g., Norway with Haaland). – Key players may be injured or out of form (e.g., Mbappé, Dembélé). – Other teams (Spain, England, Argentina) may outperform expectations. – Models may underestimate variance in knockout format.

Final estimate: Approximately 15% probability that France will win the 2026 World Cup by July 20, 2026.

Let me walk through the forecasting process for the event:

1. Clarify the event The event: On November 19, 2026—the scheduled release day of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6)—Take‑Two Interactive’s (TTWO) stock price exceeds $300 per share that day.

2. Historical base rate Currently (as of June 26, 2026), TTWO trades around $238 – $239 (stockanalysis.com). The 52‑week range spans roughly $188 to $265 (stockanalysis.com). Historically, in absence of extraordinary market moves, doubling or increasing ~25% more than the 52‑week high is rare within short periods. So the baseline odds of reaching $300 on any random day in the next few months are quite low—perhaps under 5%.

3. Independent factors Let's break the probability into key drivers: • Release‑day hype and performance: GTA 6 is one of the most anticipated game launches. Such major releases can drive stock rallies—but typical game‑release stock surges are ~10–30% (not doubling). Current analyst targets: $281 average for 12‑month target, and a Bank of America target of $368 from an upgrade—but those are longer‑term projections, not necessarily peaking on release date (stockanalysis.com). • Market sentiment & macro conditions: With broader stock market movement, sentiment could amplify or dampen.—Assume neutral-to-positive environment. • Speculative momentum: Preorder announcements and marketing may create speculative bursts. But even with that, reaching $300 (a ~25‑30% pop from June levels) on the exact day seems aggressive.

4. Estimate each factor • Game‑release bump: 30% upside potential fairly optimistic—push stock from ~$240 to ~$312. But that’s at the high end. • Analyst revisions: Could boost, but unlikely to reach $300 instantly—maybe feasible if sentiment is extremely bullish—and if revisions occur right before. • Macro/momentum tailwinds: Could add a few more percentage points, say 5–10% more upside.

Combine: A highly optimistic scenario might produce 40% rise—getting to $335+. But the realistic scenario is more like 20–25% rise ($290–$300). Only in the most bullish case would it breach $300.

5. Recombine into overall probability Given: – Base chance under 5% without anything. – With a big GTA 6 release bump, maybe turn to ~10–20%. – With analyst upgrades and bullish momentum, a further stretch—~5–10%. So combining, a reasonable forecast: 15% chance TTWO trades above $300 on November 19, 2026.

6. Check for overconfidence I’ve given buffer by erring on the cautious side. There is uncertainty in market behavior, macro conditions, and investor response. Forecast around 15% keeps moderate confidence without overclaiming.

7. Why I could be wrong – Underestimation: The cultural and financial impact of GTA 6 could exceed expectations, triggering investor euphoria and driving stock >$300 decisively. – Overestimation: Broader market downturn, poor game reception, or delayed deliveries could keep TTWO below $300—even with hype. – Unanticipated events: M&A activity, earnings surprises, regulatory news—or competitor movements—could overshadow the game’s effect.

Conclusion: I assign a 15% probability that Take‑Two shares will trade above $300 per share on November 19, 2026, the day GTA 6 is released. This reflects a modestly optimistic but cautious scenario given current price (~$239), historical movement, and the potential but uncertain impact of the game launch.

1. Clarify the event – The question: probability that Atlassian (NASDAQ: TEAM) stock is above $100 per share on September 1, 2026. That is roughly 2 months and a few days from today (June 26, 2026).

2. Historical base rate – Historically, Atlassian and similar software-as-a-service stocks rarely double from mid‑$80s to over $100 in under 3 months. A base‑rate heuristic: perhaps a ~35% chance.

3. Break into independent factors a) Current stock level and momentum b) Analyst forecasts and target ranges c) Company fundamentals and earnings outlook d) Market sentiment and macro conditions

4. Estimate each factor separately

a) Current stock and momentum: Today’s price is around $74.68 (intraday, June 26) citeturn0finance0. Recent levels have been ~$81‑$83 as of June 23‑24 (marketbeat.com). That indicates recent pullback; short‑term momentum is weak—negative for crossing $100 soon. Assign probability boost: +5%.

b) Analyst forecasts: Consensus 12‑month price targets range from about $145 avg ($145.63 MarketBeat; $144.71 S&P Global) (marketbeat.com), with low at $95, high at $295 or even $480 (marketbeat.com). Some older consensus even $178 (vcpscanner.com). Analysts are optimistic within next year. Since our target date is only ~2 months ahead, less weight. Nonetheless, forecasts imply >$100 is plausible. Probability boost: +25%.

c) Fundamentals & earnings: Q3 FY2026 (April) earnings beat, $1.787B revenue + strong AI‑led growth guidance (simplywall.st); Q2 earnings also beat EPS (reddit.com). AI momentum and margin improvement could support further upside. However, still GAAP net loss and debt; but AI strategy seen positively. Assign probability boost: +15%.

d) Market sentiment & volatility: Tech sector remains volatile. Atlassian has range $56–$223 past year (marketbeat.com). Founder insider sales and layoffs raise risk (reddit.com). Macroeconomic headwinds could dampen rally. Assign probability negative adjustment: –10%.

5. Recombine into overall probability Base‑rate 35% + momentum (+5) + analyst targets (+25) + fundamentals (+15) – risk (–10) = 70%.

6. Check for overconfidence I may be overestimating—the short timeframe (2+ months) makes >$100 ambitious. Discounts: analysts’ 12‑month targets may not materialize in this window. I’ll temper by reducing a bit to account for medium‑term uncertainty: final probability ~62%.

7. Why I could be wrong – Stock may languish or decline due to broader tech sell‑off or disappointing guidance in August earnings. – Analyst targets may be overly bullish and may be revised downward. – AI enthusiasm may fade if competition accelerates or execution falters. – Unexpected macro shocks (e.g. rate decision) could hurt valuations.

Conclusion: I assess approximately a 62% probability that Atlassian (TEAM) stock will be above $100 by September 1, 2026, based on current price, analyst sentiment, strong earnings/AI momentum, but tempered by short time horizon and risks.

1. Clarify the event: The forecast concerns whether the war in Ukraine will be ‘over before 1 October 2026,’ defined as either a peace treaty signed, Russia annexing Ukraine (i.e., unrecognized forced annexation), or Ukraine achieving a decisive victory that changes Kremlin leadership.

2. Historical base rate: No formal peace or decisive resolution has been achieved since Russia invaded in 2022. Multiple rounds of negotiation have failed. Agreements such as Minsk I & II collapsed; newer proposals have not led to a treaty (lemonde.fr). Markets also suggest low probabilities: Polymarket trades imply roughly 15–25 % chance of a peace deal before end of 2026 (lines.com).

3. Breakdown into factors: • Diplomatic momentum and negotiation viability; • Military balance and capacity for decisive breakthrough; • Internal strains in Russia and Ukraine; • External support for Ukraine; • Feasibility of annexation or Kremlin regime change.

4. Estimate each factor: • Diplomacy: Talks are continuing, but deadlocked on core issues (territory, security, nuclear plant). Minor ceasefires occurred (e.g., Orthodox Easter), but no settlement (legalclarity.org). Probability of a peace treaty before Oct 1 is low—estimate ~ 15 %. • Military outcome: Current assessments foresee continued attritional warfare, no strategic breakthrough for either side (spglobal.com). Probability of a decisive Ukrainian victory or Kremlin collapse by Oct 2026: ~ 5 %. • Annexation: A formal annexation meeting international recognition is unlikely; Russia is not making formal claims besides occupied territories, and international reaction would be severe—~ 3 %. • Economic/internal collapse: Russia’s economy is weakening and could reach technical recession, raising internal instability risks (lemonde.fr). But regime change by Oct 2026 seems improbable—~ 5 %. • External support: The EU and US continue strong military and financial aid; unlikely to decrease enough to shift to a rapid resolution—so support continues, but doesn’t translate into peace immediately—this slightly increases chances, say +5 %.

5. Recombine: Weighted combination: Peace treaty (15 %), Ukrainian victory (5 %), annexation (3 %), regime change (5 %) adjusted by external support (+5 %) → Total ≈ 28 %, but overlap and dependencies mean net probability lower—realistic estimate ~ 18 %.

6. Check for overconfidence: The estimate is inherently uncertain. I’ve assigned modest probabilities to low-likelihood outcomes. Markets price around 15–25 %; my estimate (18 %) is in that band but cautious.

7. Why this could be wrong: Rapid shifts—e.g., sudden collapse of Russian morale or economy, dramatic diplomatic breakthrough via mediators, crack within Kremlin institutions—could increase odds. Conversely, renewed escalation or deadlock would push probability lower. Internal political shifts in the U.S. or Europe could alter support trajectories.

In summary, the probability that the Ukraine war is ‘over’ before 1 October 2026 (via a peace treaty, annexation, or decisive victory/change of Kremlin leadership) is approximately 18 %.

Clarifying the Event:

The event predicts that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will be above $80,000 at any point before the end of 2026.

Estimating the Historical Base Rate:

• BTC has seen significant volatility, with previous peaks in 2017 and 2021.
• The highest historical price was around $69,000 in November 2021.
• Over the long-term, BTC has shown a pattern of rising general price levels followed by sharp corrections.

Breaking the Problem into Independent Factors:

1. Market Adoption and Demand:

   • Uptake by retail and institutional investors.
   • Acceptance as a store of value.

2. Regulatory Environment:

   • Changes in regulation impacting cryptocurrency usage globally.

3. Economic Conditions:

   • Inflationary pressures leading to investment in cryptocurrencies as hedges.

4. Technological Developments:

   • Innovations in blockchain technology.

5. Geopolitical Factors:

   • Global political stability and any potential crises that affect currency values.

Estimating Each Factor Separately:

1. Market Adoption: Moderate probability, as institutional interest has grown.
2. Regulatory Environment: High uncertainty, but potential for both restrictions and favorable legislation.
3. Economic Conditions: Current inflation trends suggest possibility, but economic recoveries or downturns can quickly alter this.
4. Technological Developments: High potential for continued innovation.
5. Geopolitical Factors: Continued volatility makes significant price shifts possible.

Recombining into an Overall Probability:

Considering these factors, particularly the volatile historic growth followed by market corrections, the probability that BTC could cross $80,000 by 2026 seems moderate.

Checking for Overconfidence:

The volatile nature of BTC and the factors involved should prompt a cautious approach, balancing optimism with historical volatility.

Imagining Why I Could Be Wrong:

• Overestimation of market growth rates.
• Underestimation of regulatory crackdowns.
• Unforeseen technological barriers or failures.

Considering all these factors, the probability of BTC reaching above $80,000 by the end of 2026 is estimated at 50%. Given its historical price trajectories, technological advances, and increasing market adoption, such an outcome is feasible, though uncertainties remain substantial.

1. Clarify the event: The event is that France wins (i.e., are the champions of) the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with resolution date July 20, 2026.

2. Historical base‑rate: Historically, no team has ever won three of four consecutive World Cups, and with 48 teams now, even top nations rarely exceed ~20–25 % pre-tournament. Spain is strongest favorite at ~16 % (Opta simulations)(theanalyst.com).

3. Independent factors: I identify key factors: • Betting-market implied probabilities • Simulation models and supercomputers • Squad strength and current form

4. Factor estimates: • Betting markets: Recent odds place France between +350 to +700, implying probabilities from ~11 % to ~22 %: BetMGM gives +350 (~22.2 %)(sports.betmgm.com); sportsbook consensus around +700 (~11–15 %)(squawka.com). • Simulation models: CupChances gives ~14 %(cupchances.com); OddsIQ gives ~14.7 %(oddsiq.ai); Poder360 model gives ~18.9 %(static.poder360.com.br). • Expert valuation: Online‑betting.org estimates true chance of 17–20 %(online-betting.org). • Squad & momentum: France fields a powerful attack (Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, Barcola etc.) and is one of the few teams capable of sustained deep runs under experienced coach Deschamps(lemonde.fr). Their group performance to date shows strength: two wins, knockout likelihood at 100 %(cupchances.com).

5. Recombine: Averaging these sources—betting markets (~17 % average), simulations (14–19 %), expert assessment (~18 %)—and considering squad strength and form, I estimate the probability at about 17.5 %.

6. Overconfidence check: There’s uncertainty from injuries, knockout volatility, and tournament structure. We should express this as a moderate estimate, not certainty.

7. Why could I be wrong? • Upsets or injuries (e.g., to Mbappé or key players) could drastically reduce chances. • Other teams (Spain, Argentina, etc.) may outperform projections. • Models may not fully account for 48‑team format or knockout draws.

Therefore, I forecast a probability of approximately 17.5 % that France will win the 2026 World Cup by July 20, 2026.

1. Clarification of the Event:

   • The event involves the Ukraine war ending before 1 Oct 2026 through either:
     • A peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine.
     • Russia annexing Ukraine.
     • Ukraine successfully winning the war, leading to a significant change in Kremlin's authorities.

2. Historical Base Rate Estimation:

   • Historically, conflicts involving major powers or ideological struggles (e.g., Vietnam War, Afghanistan War, Syrian conflict) have varied in duration. Many have lasted over a decade, but others have had periods of active conflict for only a few years before resolutions or shifts in dynamics occurred.

3. Independent Factors Analysis:

   • Current Military Situation:
     • As of now, neither side has achieved a decisive victory. Ukraine has shown resilience, and Western support has bolstered its defenses.
   • Diplomatic Efforts:
     • There have been several diplomatic attempts without conclusive success. However, international pressure for negotiations continues.
   • Internal Political Dynamics in Russia:
     • Political changes in Russia could alter the course of the war, though this is less certain. Discontent or economic troubles could pressure leadership.
   • International Economic and Political Pressures:
     • Sanctions and international isolation may push Russia towards negotiation, but this is balanced by nationalistic sentiment.
   • Support for Ukraine:
     • Sustained Western support is likely. However, shifts in political climates or changes in global priorities could impact this.

4. Estimating Each Factor:

   • Military: An intensification without clear victory - moderate likelihood.
   • Diplomatic Efforts: Slow progress - moderate likelihood.
   • Political Change in Russia: Uncertain but possible - low to moderate likelihood.
   • Economic Pressures: Ongoing impacts that could lead to negotiation pressures - moderate likelihood.
   • Western Support: Continuation is likely but not guaranteed - moderate likelihood.

5. Recombining Factors:

   • Given the complexities and the current trajectory of the conflict, an estimated probability of the war ending by the specified date 40% seems prudent.

6. Check for Overconfidence:

   • This prediction considers multiple pathways and acknowledges uncertainties and ongoing variables.

7. Imagining Being Wrong:

   • There could be unforeseen shifts, such as a dramatic change in Russia’s political landscape, a breakthrough in diplomacy, or an unexpected military development that significantly swings the dynamic in favor of resolution.