Forecaster

Source Document for Event 12 (16-08-2026)

Below is the fully updated and seamlessly integrated research document on the probability that Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa S.A. (JSW) will close above 26 PLN on August 15, 2026, reflecting data available as of Sunday, August 16, 2026 (today). It incorporates all prior analysis and any new developments identified through web research.

Title: Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa S.A. – Will It Close Above 26 PLN on August 15, 2026?
Reference Share Price: ~26 PLN on August 8, 2026
Current Date: August 16, 2026
Resolution Date: August 15, 2026

1. Company Overview & Strategic Context (Reaffirmed)

Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa remains Poland's largest producer of coking coal, supplying approximately 12 million tonnes annually to the EU steel sector. The company’s strategic expansion continues, notably following its mid‑June 2026 concession for exploring the “Dębieńsko 1” coal and methane deposit. This concession bolsters its long‑term resource base and underpins bullish sentiment.(jsw.pl)

2. Operational Performance & Price Dynamics (Reaffirmed)

For Q2 2026, JSW posted production of approximately 3.23 million tonnes of coal and 0.67 million tonnes of coke, yielding year‑to‑date totals at roughly 48.6% of annual coal and 41.6% of coke targets. Selling prices rose, with coal up ~6.2% QoQ to 767.40 zł/t (+12.4% YoY) and coke prices increasing ~7.6% QoQ.(digrin.com)

3. Share Price Behavior Through Late July (Reaffirmed)

Historical data up to July 29, 2026 provides detailed context:

  • Intraday highs frequently exceeded 26 PLN, though closing prices typically remained below.
  • Notable mid‑July exceptions:
  • From July 20 to July 29, closing prices ranged from 25.10 to 25.99 PLN, with intraday peaks exceeding 26 PLN but no closing success above that level(stockanalysis.com).

4. Monthly Trend Insight (Reaffirmed)

Monthly averages show a downward trend heading into August:

  • May 2026: average ~28.02 PLN
  • June 2026: ~24.94 PLN
  • July 2026: ~24.95 PLN(digrin.com)

This trajectory suggests a retreat from early‑2026 highs toward mid‑20 PLN levels.

5. New Data: Early August & Late July (New Findings)

Recent data now extends into early August:

Despite some recovery from June lows, no early‑August data shows ANY close above 26 PLN.

6. Forecasting Models & Sentiment (Reaffirmed and Updated)

Forecast models remain highly divergent:

  • Just2Trade projects August closing prices between 41–45 PLN—an aggressive and clearly misaligned estimate relative to actual trading ranges (~25 PLN)(j2t.com).
  • Conversely, TradersUnion projects a much lower monthly average (~21.51 PLN) and year‑end average of ~25.45 PLN—signaling skepticism about 26 PLN breakthrough (source previously referenced).
  • No new mainstream analyst forecasts projecting near-term closing above 26 PLN have surfaced in publicly accessible sources.

Additionally, alternative models such as WalletInvestor or others projecting very high ranges (e.g., up to 100 PLN+) appear to be algorithmically driven and unrealistic in light of current market behavior(admin.walletinvestor.com).

7. Updated Probability & Context as of August 16 (Including New Data)

Supportive Factors:

  • Strong Q2 results and improved pricing point to structural support.
  • Historical intraday resilience above 26 PLN remains evident.
  • Strategic developments (e.g., Dębieńsko 1 concession) suggest long-term upside.

Residual Constraints:

  • No closing price above 26 PLN has been recorded since mid‑July.
  • Early‑August closing prices remain in the 25 PLN range (highest at 25.10).
  • Divergent forecasts signal wide market uncertainty.
  • As of today (August 16), no verified data exists for the August 14 or August 15 close, making current estimates speculative.

8. Immediate Recommendations & Action Items

  1. Access official data sources—the Warsaw Stock Exchange or JSW’s investor‑relations portal—to retrieve closing price for August 14 and especially August 15, 2026.
  2. Monitor live trading records for August 15, or retrieve end-of-day data if already available.
  3. Establish real-time alerts or scraping tools to capture intraday movements and confirm closing price immediately.
  4. Prepare scenario models:
    • Bullish: closing substantially above 26 PLN.
    • Base: close near but below 26 PLN (e.g., 25–25.50 PLN).
    • Bearish: underperformance and failure to reach intraday 26 PLN.
  5. Track macro or sector developments, particularly in EU steel or coal markets, that could impact sentiment on the trading day.

9. Conclusion

As of today (Sunday, August 16, 2026), JSW has not produced publicly available closing data for August 14 or August 15, leaving uncertainty unresolved. Given early‑August closing levels hovering around 25 PLN, and no clear upward momentum in forecasts or intraday trading data, the likelihood of a close above 26 PLN on August 15 remains moderately low to uncertain.

Once the actual closing price for August 15 is confirmed, this document should be immediately updated to reflect the final outcome and recalibrate probability models accordingly.

Please let me know once the August 15 close is confirmed, or if you'd like assistance setting up automated data monitoring or probabilistic forecasting frameworks.