Updated Research Document

Event

Title: Will CD PROJEKT RED’s share price reach 320 PLN by the release of The Witcher 3: Songs of the Past in 2027?
Resolution date: October 20, 2027
Research updated: September 20, 2026

Executive Summary

CD PROJEKT RED’s fundamental position remains strong, but the company’s valuation still does not reflect a high-confidence path to 320 PLN per share.

The company has reported strong first-half 2026 results, with 435.3 million PLN of revenue, 245.3 million PLN of EBIT and 249.1 million PLN of net profit. Its planned Witcher release sequence remains intact: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered is scheduled for September 29, 2026, Songs of the Past is planned for 2027, and The Witcher 4 has a planned 2028 release window. (cdprojekt.com)

The latest search did not identify a material new product, financial or release-date announcement after the previous research update of September 19, 2026. The most recent major corporate announcement remains the September 14 confirmation that Cyberpunk 2077 and Phantom Liberty will also come to Battle.net, alongside additional Witcher and Cyberpunk cross-promotion with Blizzard. CD PROJEKT’s next scheduled investor-facing event is the Baader Investment Conference in Munich on September 21, 2026. (cdprojekt.com)

The share price closed at 236.40 PLN on September 18, 2026, leaving a required gain of approximately 35.4% to reach 320 PLN. The latest reported analyst consensus remains approximately 242.75 PLN, with a high target of 332 PLN, indicating that 320 PLN is within the range of bullish outcomes but remains well above the central market view. (investing.com)

Current estimate

Estimated probability that CD PROJEKT RED trades at or above 320 PLN at any point before October 20, 2027: approximately 22%.

This estimate is unchanged from the previous update. The positive franchise and pipeline developments are substantial, but the stock still requires a material re-rating, a successful remaster launch, strong evidence of demand for Songs of the Past, and likely upward revisions to earnings expectations.

1. Event Definition and Resolution Ambiguity

CD PROJEKT RED has confirmed that Songs of the Past will launch in 2027, but it has not provided a specific launch day or month. The event’s October 20, 2027 resolution date should therefore be treated as a cutoff date rather than a confirmed expansion-release date.

This analysis interprets the event as:

Will the Warsaw-listed CD PROJEKT RED share price trade at or above 320 PLN at any time before October 20, 2027?

This includes a temporary intraday or speculative pre-release move.

If the event instead requires the stock to close at or above 320 PLN on the exact expansion-release date, the probability would be lower. A temporary rally can occur on anticipation, trailers, pre-orders or analyst revisions even if the stock later retreats.

2. New Information Since the Previous Update

A. No Material New Corporate Development Since September 19

A review of CD PROJEKT’s investor-relations materials and recent market data found no material new announcement between the prior update and September 20, 2026. The company’s investor page continues to show the H1 2026 financial materials, the September investor chat, the September 2026 fact sheet and current reports through report 12/2026. (cdprojekt.com)

The latest major public developments remain:

September 2 H1 2026 results.
September 3 earnings webcast and investor chat.
September 8 September 2026 fact sheet.
September 14 Battle.net expansion announcement.
September 18 closing share price of 236.40 PLN.

Consequently, there is no strong basis for materially changing the previous probability estimate.

B. Upcoming Baader Investment Conference

CD PROJEKT is scheduled to participate in the Baader Investment Conference in Munich on September 21, 2026. Further investor meetings are listed for October, including the PKO by the Sea Conference, a Daiwa roadshow and Trigon Investor Week. (cdprojekt.com)

These events could generate incremental information on:

The September 29 remaster launch.
Early demand and wishlist trends for Songs of the Past.
Development expenditure.
The timing of the 2027 expansion.
The two remaining unannounced capitalized projects.
Management’s expectations for The Witcher 4.

The conference itself is not yet a fundamental catalyst; its value depends on whether management provides new guidance or investors interpret its comments as more confident than previous communications.

C. Corporate Name Change Has No Direct Earnings Impact

CD PROJEKT’s August regulatory report confirmed that the company’s legal name changed from CD PROJEKT S.A. to CD PROJEKT RED S.A. The report explicitly stated that the legal entity remains unchanged and that only the company name was amended. (cdprojekt.com)

This may improve branding consistency with the studio and its franchises, but it does not directly affect the 320 PLN forecast.

3. Confirmed Product and Franchise Developments

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered

The remastered edition is scheduled for release on September 29, 2026 for PC, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S and Nintendo Switch 2. It includes visual, performance and gameplay improvements and will be free for qualifying owners of the base game. (cdprojekt.com)

The remaster is strategically important because it can:

Reactivate dormant players.
Introduce the franchise to new Switch 2 customers.
Increase exposure for Songs of the Past.
Extend the commercial life of The Witcher 3.
Provide a near-term test of CD PROJEKT’s technical execution.

Its financial impact may be less direct because many existing owners will receive the upgrade without paying. The key question is whether the remaster generates enough new sales and renewed player engagement to increase paid expansion demand.

Songs of the Past

Songs of the Past is described as a full-scale third expansion for The Witcher 3, developed with Fool’s Theory. It introduces a new region, new characters and new quests, and returns players to Geralt before the transition to Ciri as the main protagonist of The Witcher 4. The expansion is planned for 2027 across PC, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S and Nintendo Switch 2. (cdprojekt.com)

The project appears to be materially larger than an ordinary small downloadable-content release. However, CD PROJEKT has not yet disclosed:

A precise release date.
Pricing.
Detailed pre-order information.
Sales guidance.
A firm estimate of the expansion’s commercial scope.

The lack of a date is still an important valuation limitation. A specific launch date would allow investors to estimate the period in which revenue, pre-orders and marketing momentum are likely to appear.

The Witcher 4

CD PROJEKT continues to target a 2028 release window for The Witcher 4. Management has framed the sequence as one major Witcher-related release per year: the remaster in 2026, Songs of the Past in 2027 and The Witcher 4 in 2028. (cdprojekt.com)

This provides a multi-year narrative that may support the stock’s valuation. However, it also means that the company’s largest potential earnings catalyst remains beyond the resolution date. Any delay to The Witcher 4 would likely hurt sentiment, particularly if investors have already priced in a smooth release sequence.

4. Battle.net, Switch 2 and Licensing Strategy

Battle.net Partnership

CD PROJEKT and Blizzard announced that The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered and Songs of the Past will be available through Battle.net. The partnership was later expanded to include Cyberpunk 2077, Phantom Liberty and the Cyberpunk 2077: Ultimate Edition. Additional Witcher-themed content is planned for Diablo IV, while Cyberpunk-themed collaborations are planned for other Blizzard properties. (cdprojekt.com)

This is strategically positive because it provides:

Additional distribution for CD PROJEKT’s games.
More marketing exposure.
Cross-promotion with Blizzard’s large user base.
A broader licensing and franchise monetization model.

The limitation is that the companies have not disclosed the expected financial contribution. Battle.net could improve reach without becoming a major revenue driver, particularly if users simply shift from other PC storefronts rather than represent entirely new customers.

Nintendo Switch 2

The Switch 2 launch gives the remaster and future expansion access to an audience that may not have played the original game on PC, PlayStation or Xbox. The platform-specific features include upgraded performance and controls. (cdprojekt.com)

The Switch 2 opportunity is particularly relevant to the 320 PLN event because a strong launch could create an early positive surprise before the 2027 expansion. Nevertheless, the immediate earnings impact is uncertain because the remaster is free for many existing owners and may function primarily as a customer-acquisition and reactivation tool.

Licensing and Broader IP Monetization

CD PROJEKT has emphasized that licensing is becoming increasingly important. H1 2026 results benefited from licensing and collaborations involving the Cyberpunk and Witcher intellectual properties. The company also reported that Cyberpunk 2077 had surpassed 40 million copies sold and Phantom Liberty had sold 15 million copies, supporting the view that its IP can generate value beyond individual game launches. (cdprojekt.com)

This supports a higher long-term valuation for the company’s franchises, but investors may apply a discount to licensing income if it is viewed as irregular or difficult to forecast.

5. Financial and Market Position

H1 2026 Results

CD PROJEKT reported the following H1 2026 figures:

Revenue: 435.3 million PLN.
EBIT: 245.3 million PLN.
Net profit: 249.1 million PLN.
Net profitability: approximately 57.2%.

Revenue increased approximately 23% year over year, while net profit increased approximately 37%. The company attributed the strong performance to sales from the Cyberpunk and Witcher franchises, together with a significant contribution from IP licensing. (cdprojekt.com)

The results are clearly positive. However, they should not be extrapolated mechanically. The earnings included licensing-related contributions, and future results will depend heavily on development spending, the timing of releases and the sustainability of back-catalogue sales.

Liquidity and Development Spending

The existing research indicates that CD PROJEKT held approximately 1.29 billion PLN in liquid reserves at the end of H1 2026 and spent approximately 385 million PLN on development during the first half of the year. Management has indicated that development activity is continuing to intensify rather than slow.

The combination of substantial liquidity and no debt-related financial distress is a strength. At the same time, elevated development spending creates a risk that free cash flow remains weak until a major paid release arrives.

Share Price

The stock closed at 236.40 PLN on September 18, 2026, after trading between 236.40 PLN and 241.80 PLN during the session. Its reported 52-week range was approximately 211.30–297.00 PLN. (investing.com)

From 236.40 PLN, the increase required to reach 320 PLN is:

[ \frac{320-236.40}{236.40} \approx 35.4% ]

A 35% move over approximately 13 months is achievable for a volatile game publisher, especially around a major product launch. However, the target would require the stock to exceed its recent 52-week high and would likely need a material improvement in market expectations.

Analyst Positioning

The latest reported consensus is approximately:

Average target: 242.75 PLN.
Median target: 257.50 PLN.
Low target: 112 PLN.
High target: 332 PLN.
Overall view: Hold or Neutral.

The average target is only modestly above the current price, while the high target exceeds 320 PLN. This indicates that the bullish scenario exists within the analyst distribution but is not the central expectation. (investing.com)

The market would probably require some combination of the following to move toward 320 PLN:

Strong remaster sales.
A clear increase in Songs of the Past wishlists and pre-orders.
A firm expansion release date.
Excellent reviews and technical performance.
Higher earnings estimates.
Greater confidence in The Witcher 4.
A more favorable valuation for CD PROJEKT’s licensing portfolio.

6. Fundamental Drivers

Positive Factors

1. Large installed base

The Witcher 3 has sold more than 65 million copies, while the broader Witcher series has exceeded 90 million copies. This gives Songs of the Past a very large potential audience. (cdprojekt.com)

2. Strong early interest

Management has previously indicated that approximately 900,000 players had wishlisted Songs of the Past. Wishlists are not equivalent to sales, but they provide evidence of meaningful initial demand.

3. Expansion appears commercially substantial

The project is positioned as a major Witcher release, not merely a small content update. Its return to Geralt, new region and broader distribution increase its potential to generate a meaningful revenue event.

4. Multiple distribution channels

The expansion is expected to reach PC, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, Nintendo Switch 2 and Battle.net. This broadens its addressable market and gives the company several promotional channels. (cdprojekt.com)

5. Strong balance sheet

The company’s liquidity allows it to continue funding several projects while maintaining flexibility around marketing and development.

6. Multi-year Witcher narrative

The 2026–2028 sequence creates recurring catalysts and may encourage investors to value CD PROJEKT on the basis of a portfolio of future releases rather than only current-year earnings.

7. Expanding licensing model

Cross-media and cross-game collaborations could make revenue less dependent on one-off game launches and increase the strategic value of the company’s intellectual property.

8. Potential unannounced-project catalysts

The company has indicated that additional capitalized projects remain unannounced. New disclosures could provide upside if they are perceived as credible additions to the pipeline rather than further evidence of rising execution risk.

Negative Factors

1. Large distance to the threshold

The stock is approximately 35.4% below 320 PLN. The target is achievable, but it is not close enough to be treated as the default outcome.

2. Analyst consensus is not bullish

The average target remains near the current price, and the broad consensus is Hold or Neutral. This suggests that the market has not yet incorporated a high probability of a major re-rating.

3. No firm expansion date

A 2027 window leaves uncertainty over the timing of pre-orders, revenue recognition and the main marketing campaign.

4. Remaster may have limited direct monetization

The remaster is free for many existing owners. Strong engagement may not immediately translate into proportionate revenue.

5. Licensing revenue may be variable

Although licensing is strategically attractive, the timing and scale of licensing income may be less predictable than paid sales of a new game.

6. High development expenditure

Continued spending on The Witcher 4, Cyberpunk 2, Project Sirius, Project Hadar and other projects could constrain free cash flow and increase execution risk.

7. Execution and technical risk

CD PROJEKT’s history with the original Cyberpunk 2077 launch means that investors may remain cautious until the remaster and expansion demonstrate strong technical quality.

8. The Witcher 4 remains a 2028 catalyst

The 2028 target supports the long-term story, but it also means that the largest future Witcher release is not expected to contribute materially before the October 2027 resolution date.

7. Scenario Framework

Scenario	Indicative price before or around the 2027 expansion	Probability	Main assumptions
Bear	180–235 PLN	31%	Remaster drives engagement but limited revenue; expansion date remains unclear; spending rises; analyst skepticism persists
Base	235–315 PLN	47%	Remaster performs adequately; expansion is well received; valuation improves gradually but does not reach 320 PLN
Bull	320–390 PLN	22%	Strong remaster and expansion demand, firm release date, excellent reviews, analyst upgrades and favorable market conditions

Bear Case

The stock remains below 235 PLN if the remaster is mainly a free upgrade and customer-reengagement exercise. If the market sees limited near-term monetization while development costs rise, investors may focus on weak free cash flow and the distance to the next major paid release.

Base Case

The remaster performs adequately, Songs of the Past receives positive reviews and demand is solid. However, the market treats the expansion as a successful product rather than a transformational release. The share price rises into the 250–315 PLN region but does not sustain a move above 320 PLN.

Bull Case

The stock reaches 320 PLN if several positive developments occur together:

The remaster performs strongly on Switch 2 and PC.
Player engagement converts into a substantial increase in expansion wishlists and pre-orders.
CD PROJEKT announces a specific 2027 release date.
The expansion is viewed as comparable in scope and quality to Blood and Wine.
Reviews and technical performance are excellent.
Analysts raise earnings estimates and price targets.
Investors begin capitalizing the potential success of The Witcher 4.
The Blizzard partnership generates meaningful incremental demand or visibility.
New project announcements strengthen rather than dilute the pipeline.

8. Key Monitoring Roadmap

September–October 2026: Remaster Launch

Monitor:

Review scores.
Technical stability.
Sales to new customers.
Switch 2 adoption.
Battle.net activity.
Steam player counts.
Changes in Songs of the Past wishlists.
CD PROJEKT’s share-price reaction after September 29.

A sustained move above 250 PLN following the remaster would improve the probability estimate. A decline below approximately 225–230 PLN would signal that investors view the launch as commercially insufficient.

September 21, 2026: Baader Investment Conference

The conference is the next scheduled opportunity for new management commentary. Important potential disclosures include:

Whether the expansion remains on schedule.
Whether the company is satisfied with remaster demand.
Any narrowing of the 2027 release window.
Updated wishlist or pre-order indicators.
Additional information about development expenditure or unannounced projects. (cdprojekt.com)

Late 2026 Results

The next major financial report is scheduled for November 24, 2026. It should provide more information on the remaster launch, development expenses, cash flow, licensing income and the company’s outlook. (cdprojekt.com)

2027 Expansion Campaign

The most important catalysts will be:

Release-date confirmation.
Pricing.
Pre-order availability.
Gameplay demonstrations.
Wishlist-to-pre-order conversion.
Review scores.
Sales guidance.
Analyst estimate revisions.
Evidence that the expansion is materially larger than standard DLC.

9. Updated Probability Assessment

The bullish case has strengthened compared with a company that was merely announcing a conventional expansion. CD PROJEKT now has:

A major remaster scheduled for September 29, 2026.
A paid Witcher expansion planned for 2027.
A planned Witcher 4 release window in 2028.
Broad distribution through Switch 2 and Battle.net.
Strong H1 2026 profitability.
A large Witcher installed base.
Meaningful early interest in Songs of the Past.
A growing licensing and cross-media strategy.
Several possible future project catalysts.

However, the obstacles remain significant:

The share price is 35.4% below 320 PLN.
Analyst consensus is near the current price, not near 320 PLN.
No precise expansion release date has been announced.
The remaster is free for many existing owners.
Development spending remains high.
H1 earnings included meaningful licensing income.
The market may wait for evidence of expansion sales before re-rating the stock.
The next major Witcher release, The Witcher 4, is not expected until 2028.

Current Estimate

If “reach 320 PLN” means any intraday or temporary trade:

Estimated probability: 22%.

If the stock must close at or above 320 PLN on the exact expansion release date:

Estimated probability: approximately 13–16%.

The first estimate is higher because a pre-release rally could occur on a confirmed date, strong trailer, favorable reviews, better-than-expected remaster data or analyst upgrades before the expansion’s revenue is fully reflected in financial statements.

Conclusion

The underlying CD PROJEKT story remains attractive. The company controls globally recognized Witcher and Cyberpunk franchises, has a substantial cash position, is expanding distribution through Switch 2 and Battle.net, and has built a multi-year Witcher release sequence around the remaster, Songs of the Past and The Witcher 4.

There was no material new information identified between September 19 and September 20, 2026 that would justify changing the previous assessment. The next important catalyst is the September 29 remaster launch, followed by the September 21 investor conference and subsequent management commentary.

At 236.40 PLN, the stock remains well below the 320 PLN threshold, while analyst consensus remains close to the current price. Reaching 320 PLN is plausible if the remaster creates substantial momentum, Songs of the Past converts strong franchise interest into paid demand and the market begins assigning value to the 2028 Witcher 4 pipeline. Nevertheless, those conditions must occur together for the event to become likely.

Final estimated probability: 22% that CD PROJEKT RED trades at or above 320 PLN before October 20, 2027.

Source Document for Event 8 (20-09-2026)